Solar energy investment in 2021. It seems promising.

The sustainable energy sector seems to be a wise investment choice in 2021.

Although it is still controversial whether climate change is evident, there are two things for sure. One is that underground resources we depend on are limited. The other is that burning fossil fuels causes large numbers of deaths worldwide. We should save capital and invest wisely in the sustainable solar energy sector for a better future. 

The energy we consume originates from The Sun. For example, fossil fuels are forms of solar energy accumulated in the past, while Wind-power generation, for instance, captures the wind power caused by Solar Thermal Energy. The difference is that fossil fuels are relatively harmful and unsustainable. Wind power is comparatively harmless and sustainable. 

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation systems, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, biomass, and wave power are the most common sustainable sources.

Amongst the most practicalized ones are PV and wind power generations. 



Here are related stocks and the current prices at 2021/03/21

Enphase Energy Inc : ENPH. 154.95 USD

Solaredge Technologies Inc: SEDG. 280.94 USD

Tesla Inc.: TSLA. 654.87

 First Solar, Inc: FSLR. 79.97 USD

 NextEra Energy Inc: NEE. 70.84 USD


Disclaimer

Do your research before buying any financial products. Make your decisions at your own risk.

Japan should be drastically changed

Introduction

      The author here is Japanese. I thought my nationality did not matter for writing something on this blog. In this article, however, it does. I have been an investor since the beginning of 2018. During the process of trying to make the capital effectively work, I have been thinking about the economy of Japan a lot. It is utterly sad to see the Japanese economy continuously shrinking. Meanwhile, the leaders of Japan appear to be struggling. All they can do is merely prolong the life of the Japanese economy without drastic changes needed.

      I want Japan to be prosperous again, but what can we do to make it happen? I will discuss the potential solution here.

The current Economy of Japan in a nutshell 

      The economy of Japan has been shrinking since the 90s. The national debt has been increasing unstoppably. According to Modern Monetary Theory(MMT), government debt does not matter. However, the ever-growing debt implies that although the Japanese government spent a lot of money on public investments, it did not generate the expected outcome. Japan is a place where a lot of educated people are in it. That feature is still the case in 2020. When Japan was prosperous, a strong ideology guided its people. We now lose goals and become seemingly blind to what we are doing. Historically speaking, we have strongly depended on leaders. Around 1940, the Japanese leader guided people into a disastrous outcome in WW2, but People under the strong leader utilized all the resources available effectively for the intended purpose back then. After the War, the leader was much better because the best country, the U.S., guided Japan to a wealthy Economy. Now Japan has the same or better resources. It just needs to take advantage of those resources effectively. Human resources, which are the only and main things Japan has, should be effectively utilized. Investors should distribute money wisely.

Japan should Automate everything. 

      Automation is the key for Japan to succeed at the end of the day. If automation technology is fully developed, human beings become economically useless. That means if that happens, the aged population no longer matters. People could finally live happy lives until they say goodbye to the world. 

     We might need outstanding leadership to guide us to the next stage of humanity.

3 Nice Trading Tips good to know 2020

My day-trading method is becoming drastically more profitable over the latest four months. I know exactly why. Here are the tips that worked.


1. I changed myself to wait for the right opportunity more often. 


No matter what, chance kicks in sometimes. You trade not for fun but to participate in one of the good moments.


2. I delayed the loss cut but kept the Risk/Reward Ratio. I found my style.


The market has a lot of noise. In other words, price fluctuations. Those Noises can damage you financially if you do not deal with them. There are two ways to manage the problem. The one is to resist the urge to hold a position too early. The other is to set the stop order in the deeper area.


 3. I use everything to make the final call.  


Why would you limit yourself by saying "I am a fundamentalist" or "I employ technical analysis"? Well, use both. Gather a lot of information and analyse the latest financial market from reliable sources to determine the long-term trend. Then when you take a step into holding a position in the market, it might be the right time to utilise the technical analysis.

We are in bubble confirmed! Entire economy will collapse?


I have been stupid

    I wrote about how bad our economy was on my graduation paper. I even gave a presentation about my writing in front of many educated people right before graduating from my University. My PowerPoint told the audience that recession is inevitable and coming soon in the clown show I held. However, look at the financial market. Everything is wonderful!
And who in the right mind would think that recession is incoming when every central bank in developed countries is willing to do whatever it takes to maintain the economy by implying that they will boost the financial market by printing money and so forth on a colossal scale. 
People soon will start to believe that this bubble continues forever since central governments drive it, and they are in control in a good way! Humanity finally learnt how to prevent a recession entirely.

Let us utilise the power of mathematics 

I am not, however, still able to dismiss the idea that what is happening in financial markets around the world is a bubble. Therefore, I analysed the prices of major companies and ETFs with Linear Regression.
Apple since 2000 to the current date

Nikkei 225 since 2000 to the current date

S&P500 since 2000 to the current date

Toyota motor since 2000 to the current date

If you start analysing since 2000, it indicates that it is in a bubble. However, if the financial crisis in 2008 was considered irregular and wanted to be ignored, then it should start in 2009, which was right after the crisis began to soothe itself. Let’s see it too.
Apple since 2009 to the current date

Nikkei 225 since 2009 to the current date

S&P500 since 2009 to the current date

Toyota motor since 2009 to the current date

It seems the price is slightly above the expected movement, but you cannot say it is in a bubble so that it might go up further.

About the pictures

I will implement this python code to a website so that everyone can freely generate analytic pictures like the above with any period, e.g. 2007 to 2009, and any stock prices. Please support me by reading articles on this site. 
Thank you very much. 

Coming Financial Recession


Thinking about the current economic situation


Considering the economic incidents we have currently been facing, it is entirely rational to assume that we are in a scenario where we will face a bubble before the next massive financial crisis. We discussed it in previous articles, but what should we do in the situation or the scenario? In this article, I will try to describe the current situation and consider how to counteract this situation.


From now on, the market will make you believe that the bullish market will continue forever,

The bubble is something that has historically happened repeatedly. You have to remember that there are no bullish trends that continue forever.

Generally, you lose money when your strong belief in the economy contradicts the reality.


You can slightly mitigate the risk of falling into that undesirable situation by knowing both possibilities.

One possibility is that the stock market goes up almost forever, while the other possibility is that the stock market crashes at some point, most likely around 2020. 

It, however, is unlikely that the stock market( it refers to indices) goes much further than the current price. 

To pile up short positions every time it goes up on Indices seems to have a higher probability than buying them without thinking anything.



Indices might be in a bubble.


There has been a prevalence of the information that tells us that we should buy ETFs and any indices. Historically, indices have outperformed almost any hedge fund and investors in the universe. Therefore, many people purchase indices with hard-earned money without caring about the actual economic situation.

That delusion might cause the bubble.

If you draw a linear Regression line on the S&P 500 chart( please look at the reference URL below the article), you can see something.

In theory, buying ETF, in the long run, might be the right decision because you will gain profit in 50 years anyway since the economic growth is continuous for sure. At the same time, however, if you believe the long-term economic growth exists and follows its linear regression line on the chart (it is the mathematical appearance of visible potential growth), it is not the time to buy ETFs or at least S&P500. My options are either to sell short on indices or to wait for the end of the next correction.

When it turns into a downtrend, there are many things to do.

Buying gold and Yen and selling short on indices seem to be rational decisions.


Disclaimer 

I do not force anyone to do what I wrote in this article. Investment decisions must be made by yourselves ultimately.

What can we do in the current economic situation which is, to say, very bad?


The fundamental indicators in my brain tell me that the economy is going down, but is it the case?



The Current situation

We seem to be in a situation where the entire world economy will depend upon the U.S. Economy again. As seen in the current political case between China and the U.S. and between Japan and Korea, international cooperation has deteriorated. Those things are usually strongly negative signs regarding the probability of coming depression. 


In 1929 due to the devastation of the First World War, almost the entire economy had to ask for financial help from the U.S. economy. In that era, the U.S. was the only substantial economic existence that could afford to help other countries. European countries were filled with debts from U.S. investors and the government. Amid that situation, European countries implied that without Germany’s paying Compensation stated in the Treaty of Versailles, European countries also do not pay back to the U.S. The fear and the anger of American citizens and investors came from the statement or attitudes that hindered international cooperation, which can be to blame for the lengthened period of the Great Depression in 1929 and possibly the cause of the disaster. Meanwhile, the U.S. financial system crashed in 1929, and the entire economy, which depended upon the U.S. financial market, also was devastated by the incident. 


Another example easily can be seen in financial history. In 2008, the world economy fully trusted the American housing market and invested in almost everything. The housing market crashed, and this affected the entire global market.


What can we hope for?

If there is any chance to turn the situation into a positive one, what would it be?


We can hope that the governments and the central banks will keep the economy rolling until the real economy comes up with the current bubble economy. There are inevitable and necessary demands for green technology, which is essential for humans to survive as a species on the earth for a more extended period.


However, I could say that it is easier to build the “green economy” by eliminating inefficient sectors and corporations from the economy by having an economic recession and rebuilding the economy with the ideas based on green technology.  


To return to the main topic, what should we do in the current situation?

We assume that the recession is inevitable, and there might be a bubble before experiencing an actual recession. If the assumption is valid, it is rational to buy Yen and Gold and sell short on indices or ETFs such as Nikkei 225 and S&P 500. I confirmed that Gold is no longer the best option because the prices of Gold have gone too high already. Buying Yen would be the best option I can consider.


Although I believe the contents of this article are accurate, it does not mean that I suggest that you should buy the things above. Nobody forces you to do some specific investment movement. Do anything at your own risk. Thank you very much.

It is apparent that investors worldwide think that the economy might be in a dangerous status.

Gold prices have continuously been going up, and the Yen value is also increasing.
The reason behind those movements stems from the uncertainty of the global economy.
Gold has been the best option to invest in because of two main factors. One is that inflation is possible because of monetary easing policies executed by the central banks in developed countries. The other is that under an unstable financial situation as we are experiencing, capital tends to be protected in case of economic recession. Gold is one of the options to safeguard money since Gold holds permanent value to some extent.
The Yen is also one of the safe assets.
A rise in the yen exchange rate partly indicates that investors are preparing to experience the subsequent depression.

The question is whether those acts mitigate the risk of the coming depression.
Gold is sucking money that could potentially benefit the sector that needs money. A strong yen suffocates the Japanese economy, which can eventually negatively influence other economies. On the other hand, investors can use money sucked by Gold to promote a capable economic existence when the next recession eliminates inefficient people and companies from the economy. The same goes for buying Yen. Therefore, I  can say that protecting capital by, for example, buying Gold and Yen is not more than the preparation for the coming Financial crisis.

At this point, it is rational to conclude again that financial recession is inevitable. Since the beginning of this year, I have reached the same conclusion, but it probably indicates that the decision reflects the truth.

Solar energy investment in 2021. It seems promising.

The sustainable energy sector seems to be a wise investment choice in 2021. Although it is still controversial whether climate change is e...